Five Takeaways: Treasury Official Outlines Mortgage-Market Priorities

A top Treasury Department adviser on housing policy outlined a series of initiatives that the Obama administration could undertake in 2014 to overhaul the nation’s mortgage market, even if Congress doesn’t succeed in shepherding a bipartisan overhaul of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Michael Stegman, a senior Treasury adviser, offered greater detail in a speech Wednesday about what kind of mortgage infrastructure should be built to take the place of Fannie and Freddie, and he outlined transition steps that could become a priority for the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which has a new director in former Rep. Mel Watt.

Here are some of the highlights of the speech he delivered at an industry conference in Las Vegas:

REFINANCING, PART ONE: The Treasury Department doesn’t support changing the cut-off date for the Obama administration’s Home Affordable Refinance Program, or HARP, which allows homeowners with a mortgage backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac to refinance even if they have no equity. HARP is only open to loans originated before June 2009, and some Democrats have pushed for extending that cut-off date to June 2010. Bond investors would lose money if more borrowers were allowed to refinance, which could lead them to demand slightly higher prices in the future given the potential for other policy changes:

Some have suggested that the eligibility date for HARP should be changed so that borrowers who took out mortgages after the May 31 2009 cutoff date could also obtain a HARP refinance. Treasury believes there should be no change in the HARP eligibility date. Very few homeowners whose loans were originated after the cut-off date are underwater and advancing the date would do more harm than good by prolonging market and investor uncertainties.

REFINANCING, PART TWO: Mr. Stegman endorsed creating a HARP-like program for loans that aren’t backed by Fannie and Freddie, which he said could reduce the urgency in a handful of hard-hit communities to seize those loans via eminent domain. Such a plan, for which he also voiced support last year, would require congressional action, which seems difficult in the current political environment:

We must not forget about the inability of performing underwater borrowers whose loans are held in private-label security trusts to access refinancing. This has motivated some communities whose housing markets have yet to recover to consider using eminent domain to help families refinance and “right size” their mortgage debt. While we understand their frustration, we think refinancing legislation is a better way to go.

OVERHAULING FANNIE AND FREDDIE: Mr. Stegman said that the status quo in which Fannie and Freddie remain in some form of government-controlled limbo shouldn’t be allowed to continue, even as the crisis becomes a distant memory now that companies are hauling in huge profits. For one, many of those profits are either one-time gains or they’re being generated by the firms’ large investment portfolios that are being wound down, he said:

It is good news that [Fannie and Freddie] have generated record earnings over the past several quarters…. But we believe that their recent financial results may significantly overstate the true financial condition of the enterprises, especially on a go-forward basis…. Recent financial results at the enterprises have also benefited significantly from strong home-price appreciation and low interest rates, both of which may moderate in future periods.

Part of an overhaul, he added, should address price differences between the securities issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which have resulted in higher costs for Freddie.

A good first step … that could be taken during the transition is to reduce the price gap at which Freddie Mac securities trade relative to Fannie Mae’s securities by linking the two securities. This would reduce the cost to taxpayers and improve liquidity in the [mortgage bond] market. We think it is worth pursuing and are looking to find a workable solution that would not disrupt markets.

BROADENING ACCESS TO MORTGAGE CREDIT: The Obama administration continues to argue that mortgage standards are too inflexible—potentially locking creditworthy borrowers out of the mortgage market. Overhauling Fannie and Freddie, Mr. Stegman said, would be an important way to address some of these rigid credit standards:

We believe that keeping [Fannie and Freddie] in a conservatorship whose contours and restrictions were defined by emergency legislation is not the best framework for broadening the availability of mortgage credit over the longer term. The [companies] in conservatorship have done an exceptional job of maintaining a deep and liquid secondary market in and following the recent crisis. However, we believe that continued uncertainty about their political future will continue to be a headwind impeding access to credit especially for average families with less than pristine credit. For all these reasons, comprehensive housing finance reform remains a top administration priority.

RESTARTING PRIVATE MORTGAGE SECURITIZATION: Mr. Stegman has suggested in the past that the lower cost of government-backed lending isn't the only reason privately-issued securitizations have been slow to restart. Other technical barriers remain unaddressed:

In the absence of an apparent leader, Treasury plans to coordinate a series ofconversations with relevant regulators, market participants, and other stakeholders to help accelerate necessary reforms in the non-agency space.

New York Metro Area Fourth Quarter 2013 Apartment Market Report

Deal Flow Jumps as New York Operations Remain Solid

The pace of job creation in the five boroughs has eased from one year ago, but the rental housing market remains healthy. Strong demand drivers will persist through the end of this year, while supply growth will also accelerate. With employment rising and other economic indicators providing encouragement to builders, the city is in the midst of a development cycle. Groups will continue to push projects through the approval process as 2013 winds down in advance of a change in the Mayor’s office in 2014. Notably, the city council is expected to vote on a massive re-zoning of the 73-block Midtown East area before the end of 2013. In the boroughs, development is booming in Queens, especially in Long Island City, a location that offers residents a relatively short subway ride to Midtown Manhattan employers. Roughly 8,000 units of housing are anticipated to come online in the borough over the next three years.

The investment market continues to flourish as significant gains were recorded in transaction velocity and dollar volume over the past year. A rise in long-term interest rates early in the third quarter had little effect on deals, and a more significant move in long-term interest rates will have to occur to trigger a broader and more profound re-pricing of assets. Until then, a keen bidding climate will persist. More than three-fourths of all transactions in the city over the past year took place in the $1 million to $20 million price tranche, a segment of the market dominated by private investors, including many local parties. Attractively priced acquisition debt and heightened competition among lenders will sustain a robust level of property purchases within this pool of investors in the months ahead. In the midst of a period of solid economic growth, the market remains supple, constantly shifting shape as new neighborhoods come to the fore. An extension of the 7 train to 10th Avenue next year, for example, will open up a new area of the city for developers and investors, while the ongoing development in Queens will also elevate the borough’s appeal.

2013 Annual Apartment Forecast

• Employment: Employment in the five boroughs will expand 1.8 percent in 2013 through the creation of 70,000 jobs, primarily in education and health services, and leisure and hospitality. In 2012, 78,200 positions were created in the city.
• Construction: In 2013, developers will bring online approximately 7,000 rentals in the five boroughs, an increase from more than 5,000 units last year. The building cycle will continue, as more than 15,000 units of multifamily housing are on track to receive permits this year.
• Vacancy: The vacancy rate in the New York metro will rise 10 basis points to 2.6 percent in 2013; a decrease of 10 basis points was recorded last year.
• Rents: Average rents will advance 2.5 percent in 2013 to $3,455 per month. A gain of 11.5 percent was registered during 2012.

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