Philadelphia Area Fourth Quarter 2013 Apartment Market Report

Economy on Sound Footing, Driving Apartment Sales

Respectable job growth and the formation of new households reduced vacancy in the Philadelphia metro over the first nine months of 2013 and is supporting a strong multifamily sector. Nearly every private-employment sector added workers during the period, though many industries still have additional hiring to do to recapture all of the positions lost during the downturn. Job opportunities in degreed fields or those requiring specialized training, such as healthcare, are available, but lower-skilled workers continue to face challenges. Specifically, deficits to former peak staffing levels in retail and wholesale trade persist and may be suppressing the performance of apartment buildings on the lower rungs of the quality scale. Economic trends are pointing upward, however, which could hasten the pace of hiring in lagging employment sectors in the quarters ahead. A recent regional survey by the Federal Reserve showed a rise in the index of new orders for goods and services and also signaled improved prospects for hiring.

Although investor demand outweighs the number of properties listed for sale, deal volume continues to surge. Nonetheless, the recent rise in long-term interest rates is motivating additional owners to place properties on the market. Generally, for owners contemplating a sale in the next year or two, the current bidding climate and the relatively modest rise in interest rates improves the probability of executing a transaction. Lenders are competing to provide acquisition loans, with leverage reaching as high as 80 percent. In many instances, local and regional banks have emerged as more competitive sources than the agencies. Cap rates are virtually unchanged from six months ago, and healthy disparities persist between first-year returns on different classes of assets. Class A properties, for example, typically trade in the low- to mid-5 percent range, while Class B properties change hands in the mid-6 to low-7 percent band. Cap rates for Class C or lower-quality properties with working-class tenancies typically start in the mid-8 percent range, though many deals settle closer to 9 percent.

2013 Annual Apartment Forecast

• Employment: Payrolls will swell by 33,000 jobs in 2013 to expand employment in the metro 1.2 percent. Growth in education and health services employment underpinned the creation of 28,700 positions in 2012.
• Construction: Projects containing 3,400 units will come online in 2013, up from 1,278 rentals last year. New stock will be placed in service in 10 of the metro’s 16 submarkets. The greatest impact is in Center City, where 1,429 new rentals will expand stock 4.6 percent.
• Vacancy: Vacancy will decline 30 basis points this year to 4.9 percent, the lowest year-end level in six years. The vacancy rate was unchanged in 2012.
• Rents: Following a 1.1 percent bump in 2012, average rents in the metro will rise 2.6 percent this year to $1,128 per month. With the projected increase, rents will have climbed 10 percent since bottoming four years earlier.

https://www.marcusmillichap.com/services/research/webreports/Philadelphia/Apartment.aspx