Perhaps more so than any other industry, oil and its pricing volatility impacts all elements of the U.S. economy, both positively and negatively. Looking at it from a macroeconomic level, higher oil prices are good for some industries, and yet bad for others—and the same goes for lower prices. So overall, how does oil and energy affect the commercial real estate economy? Well, almost in the exact same way, if you break it down.
According to recent statistics from the U.S. Energy Information Administration., U.S. oil production will grow to 9.31 million barrels daily by 2016, so the industry is still healthy production-wise. But for the past few years, prices have remained low and are expected to remain steady or even decline for the foreseeable future. Where this has the greatest impact for commercial real estate is in the retail sector. It’s a simple equation: Reduced gas prices cause a boost in discretionary income and the end result is additional spending for the country. Money that would be typically earmarked towards filling car and home gas tanks now remains in the wallets of U.S. consumers and retailers are the clear beneficiaries.
It’s not a coincidence that the retail sector has shown a marked improvement as oil prices have plummeted. The 2014 holiday retail sales were strong and 2015 is expected to be much the same. By extension, another byproduct winner in this ripple effect are operators of industrial properties, particularly as online retail demand triggers the movement of purchased items through their facilities.
But while retailers and shopping center and industrial building owners celebrate continued affordable gas prices, commercial real estate within markets like Houston, where oil production is the “bread and butter” business, the news is not so welcome. In fact, the entire state of Texas, our country’s number one oil drilling state, has really been squeezed by the price decline.
The Lone Star State is always subject to the underlying forces of the energy sector. When oil fundamentals are strong and prices are up, Texas is a national economic leader. But when the opposite occurs, stunted financial growth is the unfortunate result. This decline has seeped into most of the regional commercial real estate segments such as the Texas office and retail sectors. In addition, a slowdown in local construction has been steadily occurring. Fortunately, Texans have learned from previous oil crunches to diversify the businesses to avoid being completely beholden to the energy industry—so while there has been some job loss, it has been mitigated to some degree.
But Texas and other localized markets specializing in energy aside, the current state of the oil industry and its lower than normal prices and the uplift in consumer spending has generally been considered a good thing for commercial real estate. While the long-term future of oil prices remains a mystery, retailers will still be able to ride this wave for the time being.
Tuesday, July 14, 2015
Sunday, June 7, 2015
Is crowd funding the answer for developers left without financing from the banks?
The concept of syndicate investment and indirect investment in commercial property through vehicles such as investment funds and REITs is firmly established.
Investors, who may not otherwise have the expertise or financial wherewithal to purchase commercial real estate in their own right, essentially pool their resources and purchase property as part of a larger group. Considering the extent to which technology is advancing and new concepts are emerging, it is conceivable that a new phenomenon may reach us before long - that is the concept of "crowdfunding", which is becoming increasingly popular in real estate in the US and gaining traction in Europe and Asia.
Crowdfunding or peer-to-peer lending is described as "the practice of funding a project or venture by raising many small amounts of money from a large number of people, typically via the Internet".
There are now several well-established crowdfunding platforms including Kickstarter, Indiegogo, Rockethub, and Crowdcube, among others. Most of these are US platforms that have been expanding overseas into Europe and elsewhere. These platforms enable start-up businesses and entrepreneurs to launch and promote their business ideas online and give investors an opportunity to invest in this idea, often for a relatively small outlay.
It goes without saying that investing in start-ups and early stage businesses, whether through crowdfunding or otherwise, involves considerable risks, including illiquidity, lack of dividends, loss of investment and dilution. Crowdfunding should therefore only be undertaken as part of a diversified investment portfolio.
Property crowdfunding is the fastest growing segment of the market today. Following some regulation changes in the US in 2012, commercial real estate sponsors obtained the ability to broadly solicit and advertise to the public. This opened the door for real estate developers and owners to capitalize on modern digital marketing tools and leverage the reach of the Internet to reach a wider potential investor base. A study from Massolution reported that $2.5bn of crowdfunding occurred in the real estate sector in 2014 and this continues to rise.
A number of specialist real estate platforms are now in operation in the US including RealCrowd, Crowdstreet, Fundrise and Prodigy Network. In fact, the largest crowdfunding campaign ever was a real estate crowdfunding project organised by Prodigy Network. Its founder Rodrigo Niño has predicted that "Crowdfunding will disrupt the status quo of traditional equity investment in real estate."
In 2009, Niño helped build the first skyscraper in Bogota, Colombia, in 40 years. He financed much of the project by attracting small investors who invested $20,000 at a time. By 2013, he had raised over $190m for the BD Bacata project - a world record in crowdfunding. Many of the investors in this project, which has recently been completed, made returns of more than 40pc since purchasing shares. Prodigy Network has since moved on to other successful projects in New York including AKA Wall Street, 17 John and AKA United Nations. Another real estate crowdfunding vehicle Fundrise is currently offering approved investors an opportunity to invest in 3 World Trade Centre in New York.
These specialist real estate crowdfunding entities are targeting up to 10 million accredited investors in the United States who are looking for solid returns on tangible assets that can generate private equity type returns. Accredited individual investors can research the best private real estate operating companies, view current offerings, submit offers, fund investments and manage their commercial real estate portfolios from their personal crowdfunding accounts. The portfolio valuation of the largest real estate crowdfunding platform Prodigy Network's now stands at over $600m. They claim to have over 5,200 accredited investors on their books. Interestingly, they are now reportedly looking for institutional quality investment opportunities in Europe.
However, crowdfunding isn't yet an option for all interested in investing in commercial property. Although the core principle of crowdfunding is affording small investors the opportunity to invest in particular projects for relatively little outlay, many of the well-established real estate crowdfunding platforms in the US have high thresholds for accredited investors. To become an accredited investor and to be able to browse open investments on certain real estate crowdfunding platforms, in some cases you are required to have a net worth of at least $1m and to prove that you have a minimum annual income of $200,000 over a number of years in order to be accredited.
If you meet these criteria, you undoubtedly already have access to direct real estate investment opportunities and may prefer to invest in real estate in this way as opposed to pooling resources with many other investors on a crowdfunding platform in order to achieve a similar rate of return. However, as time goes on, these thresholds are likely to reduce giving a greater pool of potential investor's opportunities to invest in commercial property through crowd funding.
In a European context, Spain, Germany and the UK are expected to follow the lead of Italy, which recently became the first country to implement a law on equity crowdfunding.
The property industry is now fully au fait with syndication and REITs and the concept of collectively investing in large and diversified portfolios of commercial real estate across different geographies and jurisdictions. However, the likelihood is that technology will alter current models and streamline investment processes over the next few years with accredited investors increasingly evaluating the merits of investing in particular funds or schemes via highly supportive data rooms and websites in the first instance and making their actual investment via transparent crowdfunding type platforms. Over the last few years, technology has eliminated middle men and increased efficiencies in a plethora of different industries and it has the potential to do likewise in the real estate industry. Real estate crowdfunding has seen exponential growth over the last few years and is likely to continue to grow over the course of the next few years, particularly as the regulatory framework becomes more developed in many jurisdictions.
Investors, who may not otherwise have the expertise or financial wherewithal to purchase commercial real estate in their own right, essentially pool their resources and purchase property as part of a larger group. Considering the extent to which technology is advancing and new concepts are emerging, it is conceivable that a new phenomenon may reach us before long - that is the concept of "crowdfunding", which is becoming increasingly popular in real estate in the US and gaining traction in Europe and Asia.
Crowdfunding or peer-to-peer lending is described as "the practice of funding a project or venture by raising many small amounts of money from a large number of people, typically via the Internet".
There are now several well-established crowdfunding platforms including Kickstarter, Indiegogo, Rockethub, and Crowdcube, among others. Most of these are US platforms that have been expanding overseas into Europe and elsewhere. These platforms enable start-up businesses and entrepreneurs to launch and promote their business ideas online and give investors an opportunity to invest in this idea, often for a relatively small outlay.
It goes without saying that investing in start-ups and early stage businesses, whether through crowdfunding or otherwise, involves considerable risks, including illiquidity, lack of dividends, loss of investment and dilution. Crowdfunding should therefore only be undertaken as part of a diversified investment portfolio.
Property crowdfunding is the fastest growing segment of the market today. Following some regulation changes in the US in 2012, commercial real estate sponsors obtained the ability to broadly solicit and advertise to the public. This opened the door for real estate developers and owners to capitalize on modern digital marketing tools and leverage the reach of the Internet to reach a wider potential investor base. A study from Massolution reported that $2.5bn of crowdfunding occurred in the real estate sector in 2014 and this continues to rise.
A number of specialist real estate platforms are now in operation in the US including RealCrowd, Crowdstreet, Fundrise and Prodigy Network. In fact, the largest crowdfunding campaign ever was a real estate crowdfunding project organised by Prodigy Network. Its founder Rodrigo Niño has predicted that "Crowdfunding will disrupt the status quo of traditional equity investment in real estate."
In 2009, Niño helped build the first skyscraper in Bogota, Colombia, in 40 years. He financed much of the project by attracting small investors who invested $20,000 at a time. By 2013, he had raised over $190m for the BD Bacata project - a world record in crowdfunding. Many of the investors in this project, which has recently been completed, made returns of more than 40pc since purchasing shares. Prodigy Network has since moved on to other successful projects in New York including AKA Wall Street, 17 John and AKA United Nations. Another real estate crowdfunding vehicle Fundrise is currently offering approved investors an opportunity to invest in 3 World Trade Centre in New York.
These specialist real estate crowdfunding entities are targeting up to 10 million accredited investors in the United States who are looking for solid returns on tangible assets that can generate private equity type returns. Accredited individual investors can research the best private real estate operating companies, view current offerings, submit offers, fund investments and manage their commercial real estate portfolios from their personal crowdfunding accounts. The portfolio valuation of the largest real estate crowdfunding platform Prodigy Network's now stands at over $600m. They claim to have over 5,200 accredited investors on their books. Interestingly, they are now reportedly looking for institutional quality investment opportunities in Europe.
However, crowdfunding isn't yet an option for all interested in investing in commercial property. Although the core principle of crowdfunding is affording small investors the opportunity to invest in particular projects for relatively little outlay, many of the well-established real estate crowdfunding platforms in the US have high thresholds for accredited investors. To become an accredited investor and to be able to browse open investments on certain real estate crowdfunding platforms, in some cases you are required to have a net worth of at least $1m and to prove that you have a minimum annual income of $200,000 over a number of years in order to be accredited.
If you meet these criteria, you undoubtedly already have access to direct real estate investment opportunities and may prefer to invest in real estate in this way as opposed to pooling resources with many other investors on a crowdfunding platform in order to achieve a similar rate of return. However, as time goes on, these thresholds are likely to reduce giving a greater pool of potential investor's opportunities to invest in commercial property through crowd funding.
In a European context, Spain, Germany and the UK are expected to follow the lead of Italy, which recently became the first country to implement a law on equity crowdfunding.
The property industry is now fully au fait with syndication and REITs and the concept of collectively investing in large and diversified portfolios of commercial real estate across different geographies and jurisdictions. However, the likelihood is that technology will alter current models and streamline investment processes over the next few years with accredited investors increasingly evaluating the merits of investing in particular funds or schemes via highly supportive data rooms and websites in the first instance and making their actual investment via transparent crowdfunding type platforms. Over the last few years, technology has eliminated middle men and increased efficiencies in a plethora of different industries and it has the potential to do likewise in the real estate industry. Real estate crowdfunding has seen exponential growth over the last few years and is likely to continue to grow over the course of the next few years, particularly as the regulatory framework becomes more developed in many jurisdictions.
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Thursday, May 28, 2015
First crowdfunded real estate project paying off
When Ben Miller decided to use crowdfunding as a means to rehabilitate a beaten-down building in one of Washington, D.C.'s transitional neighborhoods, he didn't really know crowdfunding was a thing, That's because it wasn't, at least not in real estate, yet.
But Miller and his brother Dan were raised in both a real estate family and in the social generation. Their goal—to give everyone the opportunity to invest in commercial real estate—was just intuitive to them. Previously, commercial real estate was a playground for large-scale investors only.
"We didn't know it would become a movement, and that the movement would be our business," said Ben Miller, standing in the finished project—an open, modern/industrial-style space called Maketto. "We raised $350,000 from 175 people at $100 a share, and now the industry will do a billion dollars a year, and we're doing a project a week and raising probably half a million dollars a day."
Fundrise is an online crowdfunding platform offering individual investors a chance to buy shares in a commercial real estate project. The returns come from both rental stream and the appreciation of the property itself.
That was what was so enticing about the first project on H Street, a transitional neighborhood just east of D.C's Union Station. Not only was the neighborhood on the verge of big growth, but it also begged for an anchor destination to get the ball rolling.
When you first walk into Maketto, it's not immediately clear what the place is—and that is literally by design. It is a bar, a designer coffee house, a bakery, a retail clothing and sneaker shop, and a restaurant with a James Beard-nominated chef. Independent vendors all feed off each other, literally, under one roof. By sharing the space, the rent is cheaper, and therefore the profit greater.
"The whole idea was to do something different, to do something that the neighborhood wanted, so the space is both a restaurant and high fashion, it has a cafe," Miller said. "It's called Maketto meant to be a communal market, and the people invested in this project not only own a piece of the real estate but also a piece of the restaurants."
Miller may call it a market, but really it is a floor plan for the future: A social network of retail and restaurant on three levels, with communal seating everywhere (even in the chef's kitchen), and open-air spaces on the roof. It is what the millennials moving into this now-trendy new neighborhood expect.
"The point is to get people in there from the minute you wake up in the morning for your coffee through your nighttime cocktail and to meet people while you're there. It invites you to chat," said Gina Schaefer, one of the "crowd" investors in the project.
Schaefer and her husband own 10 hardware stores in the District and in Baltimore, but they lease all their properties. Owning real estate was way beyond their means until Fundrise approached them with the crowdfunding platform. They bought into it, investing $10,000 in the project. Last year, they received their first dividend check.
"I think for us it was just being part of the sharing community and the movement, and even if it was just a piece, to say that we owned something," Schaefer said. "We never in a million years would be able to afford to own a property in Washington, along H Street, where everything is starting to grow."
On a sunny Friday, midmorning, Maketto was already humming.
Toward the back of the main floor, just past the well-stocked bar which, for now, is spread with an array of breakfast pastries, one patron sits alone, wired up to a conference call. She is sipping something from Vigilante Coffee, a vendor that has set up shop on the second floor. At a longer, communal table upstairs, two suited patrons appear to be in the midst of an interview.
Just past them, across the first roof garden where a young man sits reading on his laptop, you can see workers in the glass-enclosed kitchen preparing for the lunch crowd. On the outdoor third-roof level, a group of young women is hashing out a business plan over laptops, something that involves dancing. All this as an older couple walks into the front of the main floor, tempted by pastries on the bar, but stopping to browse the $100 shoelaces.
For Christopher Vigilante (that's his mother's maiden name actually), it was the opportunity to share in something bigger than his tiny coffee company.
"For business, it helps create a lifestyle brand. Folks that typically want to drink a high-end coffee can understand what really fine cuisine can be like, can also appreciate fine clothing, a shirt that might cost you a few extra dollars but will last you 10 years—these folks all kind of run in similar circles," said Vigilante, standing behind three glass spheres of bubbling brews, heated by Bunsen burners. "I think when you have the synergy of all these businesses, you get that lifestyle brand."
A brand that is solidly Millennial—shared—right down to the funding.
"A hundred companies have followed us into this space," said Miller, who has grown his crowdfunding company Fundrise from three to 30 employees. Fundrise recently raised $35 million for its technology platform, and Miller said he is hiring an employee a week.
Fundrise began raising money for the H Street property in 2012. Back then, Miller talked about how they had to work through an arduous process with the Securities and Exchange Commission in order to make this first-of-its-kind online equity offering for a real estate property happen. Now Fundrise is crowdfunding projects across the country.
Maketto is very nearly a visual manifestation of the philosophy behind its fundraising; put simply, a social structure grown out of social financing.
"You can tell when you interact with customers, who maybe put in that first hundred dollars to get this project off the ground, that they feel connected to the space in a different way than say any other coffee bar," Vigilante said.
As such, it is already transforming the neighborhood around it.
"We've created an anchor down this side of H Street, so it's drawing more people here," said Miller of the neighborhood, which, along with several new restaurants and fitness studios, will soon be home to a Whole Foods and more than 1,000 new apartment units. "It's probably the coolest project tin the whole city, and that's making it a destination. The real estate growth from this neighborhood has been sensational."
Miller estimates that the building itself has appreciated between 50 and 100 percent since the crowd brought it back to life. For the neighborhood, its contribution appears, so far, invaluable.
Labels:
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crowdfunding,
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Fundrise,
Washington
Wednesday, May 27, 2015
Bitcoin Gains Traction amid Steady Growth in Indonesia
Indonesia, one of the world’s most beautiful archipelagoes and travel destinations, has had a consistent increase in bitcoin adoption at popular tourist spots including Bali, Jakarta and Denpasar, since the launch of BitIslands in March 2014.
Initiated by the largest Indonesian Bitcoin exchange Bitcoin Indonesia, the project was sponsored by leading Bitcoin merchant platforms and mobile services in Asia, including a Singaporean startup Coin of Sale, Artabit, CoinPip, Quantified, Tukarcash and Bitwyre. Since 2014, Bitcoin Indonesia continued to aggressively push the project in Bali, where BitIslands launched a bitcoin Information Center and Bali’s first offline Bitcoin exchange.
Due to the increase of bitcoin’s market awareness and merchant adoption, the majority of the locals started to use bitcoin online, and began to appreciate bitcoin’s low transaction fees and speed, The Wall Street Journal reports.
“Most Indonesians currently use bitcoin to pay for services online, such as web hosting. They can also use the digital currency to book hotel rooms through travel websites hosted overseas rather than use credit cards, which only a small percentage of the population currently own,” the Journal article says.
Furthermore, major bitcoin exchanges such as Bitcoin Indonesia have seen a substantial growth in both the number of users and daily trading volumes. The largest bitcoin exchange in Indonesia currently trades around 200 bitcoin daily and supports more than 56,000 users.
“Many people think that Bitcoin is unheard of in Indonesia, but the fact is its popularity is soaring now,” Bitcoin Indonesia CEO Oscar Darmawan said.
In September 2014, several projects emerged to increase bitcoin mainstream adoption in the nation, by allowing Indonesian residents to purchase bitcoin at popular stores or tourist spots. The project ran by Bitcoin Indonesia enabled users of its exchange to purchase bitcoin at any of the 10,000 Indomarket convenience stores via a partnership with iPaymu, a merchant payment platform.
Such services, along with the rising volume of Bitcoin exchanges, influenced Indonesian merchants to accept bitcoin in other parts of Indonesia apart from Bali, where most of the Bitcoin projects began. Currently, Indonesia has more than 50 Bitcoin merchants, and the majority are located in Denpasar.
Rise of Bitcoin Start-ups
Since early 2015, some Bitcoin start-ups began to relocate to Indonesia, targeting the poor banking systems and payment infrastructure of the country. One of the start-ups was Blossom, which recently moved from San Francisco to Indonesia to offer the country’s first bitcoin-based global lending/investing platform.
Blossom connects international investors to small businesses in Indonesia which are ready to launch. Through an established local microfinance institution, Blossom delivers the bitcoin funds to the businesses. After 12 months, profits from the businesses are collected to be distributed to the investors, with around 7.5 percent to 12.5 percent in return.
“In conventional investment, I have to rely on the statements and numbers publicized by my partners. With Bitcoin, it’s clear to everyone what’s going on,” said founder Matthew Martin.
As the number of bitcoin merchants and trading volumes continue to grow at a consistent rate, Bitcoin startups and establishments, including Bitcoin Indonesia, aim to achieve mainstream bitcoin adoption in popular tourist spots in the country.
Wednesday, April 1, 2015
CMBS Delinquencies Unchanged in March as Loan Liquidations Remain Low
Trepp, LLC, the leading provider of information, analytics, and technology to the CMBS, commercial real estate, and banking markets, released its March 2015 US CMBS Delinquency Report today.
The Trepp CMBS Delinquency Rate was unchanged in March, interrupting the recent string of falling delinquencies. After falling for four consecutive months, the delinquency rate for US commercial real estate loans in CMBS remains 5.58%. The percentage of seriously delinquent loans, defined as those 60+ days delinquent, in foreclosure, REO, or non-performing balloons, fell one basis point to 5.41%.
Almost $1.1 billion in CMBS loans became newly delinquent in March, bringing total delinquencies to $29.4 billion, slightly below the total as of month-end February. Over $800 million loans were cured last month, while $570 million loans that were previously delinquent paid off either at par or with a loss.
The decline in the pace of loan resolutions does not come as a surprise. After a torrid pace in 2012 and 2013, liquidations have slowed for the time being. As the market gets further into the cycle of 2006 and 2007 10-year loans reaching their maturities, Trepp expects liquidation volume numbers to start to pick up again.
"The financial markets were turbulent in March, but the CMBS market remained a sea of tranquility," said Manus Clancy, Senior Managing Director at Trepp. "While market watchers were worried about lower US GDP, an overly strong dollar, and sagging corporate earnings, the CMBS market was as steady as could be. Spreads remained largely unchanged in March, new issuance was solid, CMBS volatility was light, and the delinquency rate was flat. That performance compared to the big whipsaws in US stock prices seemingly each day in March."
The Trepp CMBS Delinquency Rate was unchanged in March, interrupting the recent string of falling delinquencies. After falling for four consecutive months, the delinquency rate for US commercial real estate loans in CMBS remains 5.58%. The percentage of seriously delinquent loans, defined as those 60+ days delinquent, in foreclosure, REO, or non-performing balloons, fell one basis point to 5.41%.
Almost $1.1 billion in CMBS loans became newly delinquent in March, bringing total delinquencies to $29.4 billion, slightly below the total as of month-end February. Over $800 million loans were cured last month, while $570 million loans that were previously delinquent paid off either at par or with a loss.
The decline in the pace of loan resolutions does not come as a surprise. After a torrid pace in 2012 and 2013, liquidations have slowed for the time being. As the market gets further into the cycle of 2006 and 2007 10-year loans reaching their maturities, Trepp expects liquidation volume numbers to start to pick up again.
"The financial markets were turbulent in March, but the CMBS market remained a sea of tranquility," said Manus Clancy, Senior Managing Director at Trepp. "While market watchers were worried about lower US GDP, an overly strong dollar, and sagging corporate earnings, the CMBS market was as steady as could be. Spreads remained largely unchanged in March, new issuance was solid, CMBS volatility was light, and the delinquency rate was flat. That performance compared to the big whipsaws in US stock prices seemingly each day in March."
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