IMF: Global Growth Revised Down, Despite Cheaper Oil, Faster U.S. Growth

Even with the sharp oil price decline—a net positive for global growth—the world economic outlook is still subdued, weighed down by underlying weakness elsewhere, says the IMF’s latest WEO Update.

Global growth is forecast to rise moderately in 2015–16, from 3.3% in 2014 to 3.5% in 2015 and 3.7% in 2016 (see table), revised down by 0.3% for both years relative to the October 2014 World Economic Outlook (WEO).

Recent developments, affecting different countries in different ways, have shaped the global economy since the release of the October WEO, the report says. New factors supporting growth—lower oil prices, but also depreciation of euro and yen—are more than offset by persistent negative forces, including the lingering legacies of the crisis and lower potential growth in many countries.

“At the country level, the cross currents make for a complicated picture,” says Olivier Blanchard, IMF Economic Counsellor and Director of Research. “It means good news for oil importers, bad news for oil exporters. Good news for commodity importers, bad news for exporters. Continuing struggles for the countries which show scars of the crisis, and not so for others. Good news for countries more linked to the euro and the yen, bad news for those more linked to the dollar.”

Cross currents in global economy

In advanced economies, growth is projected to rise to 2.4%  in both 2015 and 2016. Within this broadly unchanged outlook, however, is the increasing divergence between the United States, on the one hand, and the euro area and Japan, on the other.

For 2015, the U.S. economic growth has been revised up to 3.6%, largely due to more robust private domestic demand. Cheaper oil is boosting real incomes and consumer sentiment, and there is continued support from accommodative monetary policy, despite the projected gradual rise in interest rates. In contrast, weaker investment prospects weigh on the euro area growth outlook, which has been revised down to 1.2%, despite the support from lower oil prices, further monetary policy easing, a more neutral fiscal policy stance, and the recent euro depreciation. In Japan, where the economy fell into technical recession in the third quarter of 2014, growth has been revised down to 0.6%. Policy responses, together with the oil price boost and yen depreciation, are expected to strengthen growth in 2015–16.

In emerging market and developing economies, growth is projected to remain broadly stable at 4.3% in 2015 and to increase to 4.7% in 2016—a weaker pace than forecast in the October 2014 WEO. Three main factors explain this downward shift.

• First, the growth forecast for China, where investment growth has slowed and is expected to moderate further, has been marked down to below 7%. The authorities are now expected to put greater weight on reducing vulnerabilities from recent rapid credit and investment growth and hence the forecast assumes less of a policy response to the underlying moderation. This lower growth, however, is affecting the rest of Asia.

• Second, Russia’s economic outlook is much weaker, with growth forecast downgraded to negative 3.0% for 2015, as a result of the economic impact of sharply lower oil prices and increased geopolitical tensions.

• Third, in many emerging and developing economies, the projected rebound in growth for commodity exporters is weaker or delayed compared with the October 2014 WEO projections, as the impact of lower oil and other commodity prices on the terms of trade and real incomes is taking a heavier toll on medium-term growth. For many oil importers, the boost from lower oil prices is less than in advanced economies, as more of the related windfall gains accrue to governments (for example, in the form of lower energy subsidies).

Risks to recovery

The distribution of risks to global growth is more balanced than in October, notes the WEO Update. On the upside, lower oil prices could provide a greater boost than assumed. Other risks that could adversely affect the outlook involve the possible shifts in sentiment and volatility in global financial markets, especially in emerging market economies. The exposure to these risks, however, has shifted among emerging market economies with the sharp fall in oil prices. It has risen in oil exporters, where external and balance sheet vulnerabilities have increased, while it has declined in oil importers, for whom the windfall has provided increased buffers.

Policy priorities

The weaker global growth forecast for 2015–16 underscores the need to raise actual and potential growth in most economies, emphasizes the WEO Update. This means a decisive push for structural reforms in all countries, even as macroeconomic policy priorities differ.

In most advanced economies, the boost to demand from lower oil prices is welcome. It will also lower inflation, however, which may contribute to a further decline in inflation expectations, increasing the risk of deflation. Monetary policy must then stay accommodative to prevent real interest rates from rising, including through other means if policy rates cannot be reduced further. In some economies, there is a strong case for increasing infrastructure investment.

In many emerging market economies, macroeconomic policy space to support growth remains limited. But lower oil prices can alleviate inflation pressure and external vulnerabilities, giving room to central banks to delay raising policy interest rates.

Oil exporters, for which oil receipts typically contribute a sizable share of fiscal revenues, are experiencing larger shocks in proportion to their economies. Those that have accumulated substantial funds from past higher prices can let fiscal deficits increase and draw on these funds to allow for a more gradual adjustment of public spending to the lower prices. Others can resort to allowing substantial exchange rate depreciation to cushion the impact of the shock on their economies.

Lower oil prices also offer an opportunity to reform energy subsidies and taxes in both oil exporters and importers. In oil importers, the saving from the removal of general energy subsidies should be used toward more targeted transfers to protect the poor, lower budget deficits where relevant, and increase public infrastructure if conditions are right.

Big Players Look to Acquire, Not Lend On, Asian Real Estate

The Asian distressed market business might be the Godot of real estate finance. Investors and analysts seem to have been waiting endlessly for opportunities in non-performing loans and distressed debt. But waiting in vain, it would seem.

Appetite for Chinese and other Asian troubled assets is booming. So far this year, funds have raised over $2 billion to invest in Asian debt, up from $303 million in 2013, according to London-based researcher Preqin. According to survey from the firm, in February 2014, 17 percent of real estate investors based in North America focused on Asian investments, up from 9 percent in July 2013. Among European investors, 41 percent targeted these investments in February 2014, up from 18 percent the previous year.

But looking specifically at the real estate market, as of September 17th, only four real estate debt-focused funds had closed and raised capital for $800 million, up from $700 million from last year, but far from the $2.1 billion in 2012.

“Be it Japan’s commercial mortgage–based securities tail, cash-starved Chinese developers, or failed REITs, the reality has generally fallen short of expectations,” according to PwC’s report Emerging Trends in Real Estate for 2014. “To some extent, this reflects a cultural reluctance to allow compromised deals to be recycled by the market as they are in the West.”

While international investment in non-performing loans is playing a big part in the recovery story in Europe, rules banning foreign investors from buying real estate debt in some jurisdictions, like China, and aggressive local banks have limited Western investment in the Asian real estate debt market.

“The market has recovered very strongly,” Priyaranjan Kumar, regional director for Capital Markets at Cushman & Wakefield Asia Pacific, told Mortgage Observer. The recovery meant that local banks were able to refinance their loans without selling NPL portfolios—limiting the potential bargains for opportunistic investors. “Prices are at pre-crisis level or higher, the volumes of exchanges are at pre-crisis level or higher… Asian banks are in very good health,” Mr. Kumar said.

Loan-to-value ratios have been growing across Asia. According to PwC, they commonly register 60 to 65 percent across Asian markets and can reach 80 to 85 percent in Japan. The crisis affected mainly foreign banks, which often just opted to leave the real estate debt sector in Asia, while local banks were still clinging to their business. Foreign banks’ share of the real estate lending market in Asia dropped from over 40 percent before the crisis to less than 30 percent now, according to Mr. Kumar.

There are some exceptions, particularly in the Japanese and Australian markets (Australia is frequently grouped in with Asia, despite the fact that it is its own market). For instance, between 2010 and 2012, Fortress Investment Group raised $2.4 billion for two Japan funds targeted to buy real estate debt backed by apartments, retail and hotels. The first fund, Japan Opportunity Fund, which focuses on nonperforming or sub-performing debt from Japanese banks, recorded annualized inception-to-date net IRR of 27.9 percent through June 30, 2014, Fortress said in its latest earnings call.

And between 2011 and 2013, Axa Real Estate Investment Managers raised $390 million for two Japan commercial-property loans funds.

Lately, the most active players among real estate-debt funds were Kotak Realty Fund and Piramal Fund Management, which are both Indian-based and focused on the Indian market. A lack of financing from Indian banks for real estate development has resulted in a funding gap that has created demand for alternative debt. In 2014 Kotak and Piramal have closed a $400 million and $164 million fund, respectively, focused on Indian distressed and opportunistic debt, according to Preqin.

But the largest international opportunistic players right now are looking at acquiring assets, not lending. Among private equity investors, Blackstone Group is expected to close Blackstone Real Estate Partners Asia, the largest private equity real estate fundraise for the region, by the end of the year. The fund had a target of $4 billion and a hard-cap of $5 billion. At July 2014, it had already raised $4.2 billion.

Abe Eyes Land-Price Reflation in Zones to Spur Building Boom

Japan wants to trigger a jump in inner-city property prices by loosening building restrictions in test zones under Abenomics, a government adviser said.

“Central-city property prices will likely rise when various plans are announced,” Tatsuo Hatta, 70, a member of a government council on special economic zones, said in an interview in Tokyo last week. The economic impact from the urban-planning changes will be “extremely big,” he said.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is trying to sustain an economic rebound that risks losing steam in April when a sales-tax increase will damp consumer spending. While Hatta’s comments offer some insight into the government’s plans for special economic zones, investors are still waiting for fuller details of Abe’s growth strategy in what Goldman Sachs Group Inc. calls a “critical year” for Abenomics.

Home prices in Tokyo are around 120,000 yen to 150,000 yen per square foot, Chicago-based Jones Lang LaSalle said last year. That compares with about 280,000 yen to 400,000 yen in Hong Kong and 200,000 yen to 250,000 yen in Singapore, it said.

According to Hatta, the changes will make it easier to construct residential buildings in business districts in designated zones, creating opportunities to improve urban planning and make cities more enticing for employees of foreign companies.

Stock Bust

The bursting of a bubble in the stock market, which peaked in 1989, and a real-estate market bust in the 1990s saddled banks with bad loans, plunging Japan into a deflationary slump that it’s still trying to shake.

While prices in some cities picked up after former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi cleaned up the banking system in the early 2000s, a sustained rebound has been elusive. Nationwide residential real-estate prices at the end of September were down 51 percent from a peak in 1991.

Introducing special economic zones is a cornerstone of Abe’s effort to create opportunities for Japanese companies, along with steps to boost industrial competitiveness and open up the country more to international trade.

The government may decide in March where it will locate the special zones, Abe said on Jan 7.

2020 Olympics

The council will decide on criteria for selecting these areas at its next meeting expected to be held at the end of January or early February, Hatta said. There will be a maximum of five zones, with one or two “virtual” areas and the rest in big cities, he said.

Tokyo’s real-estate market has started to perk up, helped by unprecedented monetary easing by the Bank of Japan and the city’s successful bid to host the 2020 Olympics. The monthly average vacancy rate in Tokyo business areas fell to 7.34 percent at the of December from 8.67 percent a year earlier and 9.01 percent at the end of 2011, according to data from Miki Shoji Co.

The real-estate subindex of Japan’s benchmark Topix of shares climbed about 62 percent over the past year, outpacing a 43 percent gain in the Topix index.

Japan’s commercial real-estate transaction volume jumped 41 percent in October-December from the previous quarter, led by Japan Real-Estate Investment Trust activity, according to DTZ Research. Sales of commercial property more than doubled last year to 3.54 trillion yen ($34 billion), the highest since 2007, it said in a research note this week. Commercial property includes office buildings, shopping malls and distribution centers.

Attracting Foreigners

Loosening rules on residential construction in business districts would create more demand for education, medical and other services in those areas, Hatta said.

“Labor and other issues are more important and will have an impact over the long term, but this will have a strong impact in the short run,” Hatta said of the building deregulation. “The focus, as far as attracting foreign nationals is concerned, is to make living in city centers comfortable,” Hatta said.